What are Bayern’s chances of taking the Bundesliga title back?

• Bayern Munich failed to win the Bundesliga title last season for the first time since 2011-12.
• Manager Thomas Tuchel left at the end of last season with Burnley’s Vincent Kompany coming in.
• Bayern have signed a series of players including Michael Olise and João Palhinha from the Premier League.
• Reigning champions Bayer Leverkusen will be among the teams hoping to beat them next season.

It doesn’t happen often, but last season Bayern Munich failed to win the Bundesliga. The first time they’d not done so since 2011-12, the second season in a row that Borussia Dortmund came out on top. Can they retake the title for 2024-25?

For Bayern, the most successful club in Germany and one of the most successful clubs in the world, failing to win the Bundesliga is something of a disaster, and this time they not only didn't win but actually came third, behind VfB Stuttgart too.
 

What happened last time?

After the 2011-12 season, when Bayern were beaten to the title by Dortmund, they had a busy summer. Most notably, they broke the Bundesliga transfer record with the €40m signing of Javi Martínez from Athletic Bilbao.  

Among the other players to arrive were Xherdan Shaqiri, Dante, and Mario Mandžukić. Meanwhile, the likes of Ivica Olić, Breno, Danijel Pranjić and Hans-Jörg Butt departed. What followed was a team that won the Champions League and the Bundesliga, as well as the DFB-Pokal – the German Cup.

You need to fast forward over a decade to the next off-season following Bayern not winning the Bundesliga, but again there have been a few changes.

How Bayern have reacted this time?

There hasn’t been much in the way of outgoings, with the most notable being Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting and Bouna Sarr, both released.

In terms of incomings, however, attacking midfielder Michael Olise and defensive midfielder Joäo Palhinha have arrived from Crystal Palace and Fulham for a reported €60m and €51m combined. Japanese defender Hiroki Itō has come from Stuttgart for around €30m too, while Eric Dier and Bryan Zaragoza have both made loans permanent. Australian international winger Nestory Irankunda, 18, is another fascinating new signing, joining up with his new club last month after the deal was agreed last November.

Add these new signings to what is a strong squad, and Bayern – on paper, at least – surely have enough to take the title back again. Harry Kane had a prolific first season, Jamal Musiala is a ridiculously good young talent, and Bayern’s clutch of established German internationals (Leon Goretzka, Joshua Kimmich, Thomas Müller, Serge Gnabry, Leroy Sané) might be getting older and not always nailed-on starters for their country anymore, but are firm fixtures in this squad.

Potential weak spots.

It feels somewhat strange to say about Bayern, given how consistently good Manuel Neuer has been for so long, but it might be in goal where the team looks weakest now. Neuer is 38, old even for a goalkeeper. Alexander Nübel remains on loan at Stuttgart, Sven Ulreich isn’t much younger than Neuer, and Daniel Peretz may well also go out on loan.

And there are question marks over Bayern’s manager, too. Following courtships of bigger, more proven names, and a bid to keep Thomas Tuchel at the club, the hierarchy went for Vincent Kompany, who’d just been relegated from the Premier League with Burnley.

While Kompany was a great player, most notably for Manchester City, he’s largely unproven as a manager. He began his managerial career at Anderlecht in his native Belgium, before joining Burnley in 2022. While he impressed in his first season, the club getting promoted from the Championship with little difficulty, his management came under more scrutiny in his second season as the Clarets struggled to cope with life back in the Premier League.

It probably wouldn’t be unfair to say that Kompany got this job based more on his glittering playing career than on any managerial success. The jury’s still out on him as a manager, but looking at a list of Bayern’s recent managers, it’s clear that he lacks the pedigree of his predecessors. Between Jupp Heynckes, who was manager the last time Bayern failed to win the Bundesliga, and Kompany, the club boasted the likes of Pep Guardiola, Carlo Ancelotti, Hansi Flick, and Tuchel as manager.

Speaking of Heynckes, he actually stayed on despite the club not winning the Bundesliga. The following season, they were crowned champions in the first week of April, only losing one game all season. But Heynckes was an experienced coach who’d managed Bayern before and had stints coaching teams like Eintracht Frankfurt, Benfica, Athletic Bilbao, and even Real Madrid.

Kompany does not have the sort of experience that Heynckes could draw from. That’s not to say that he isn’t a good manager, but appointing him was a gamble, particularly when he’s compared to many of the favourites for the role like Mauricio Pochettino, Ralf Rangnick, and Antonio Conte.

The competition

There’s also surely going to be the usual competition from at least a couple of Leverkusen, Stuttgart, Dortmund and RB Leipzig. Leverkusen’s team hasn’t been ransacked by the big guns, while they’ve been able to add Jeanuël Belocian, Aleix García and Martin Terrier for over €50m altogether, while Dortmund have acquired Stuttgart’s Serhou Guirassy and Waldemar Anton as well as Yan Couto from Manchester City on loan and Brighton & Hove Albion’s Pascal Groß on a permanent deal.

Bayern are favourites to win the title next season, with odds as short as 1/2 with many bookmakers. It would be a surprise to see them fail to win the Bundesliga twice in a row, as what happened at the start of the 2010s, but it’s certainly possible. With so much upheaval at Bayern, Dortmund might feel as though it’s their best chance in a decade to win a title, but with the players Bayern have got, they should really be winning.

Vincent Kompany, over to you…

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