Who has the best chance of winning the FA Cup?

• Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Manchester City and Nottingham Forest are the last four teams standing in the FA Cup
• The former two play each other in the first semi-final, followed by the latter two in the second
• Man City are favourites despite an underwhelming season, but all four teams have a great chance

Qualifying began in August and the tournament itself started in November, but there are now just four teams left in this season’s FA Cup.  

Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Manchester City and Nottingham Forest will have to wait until the weekend of 26/27 April to find out which two of them will be competing in the final on 17 May.

Most of the traditional big guns are out already, Man City aside, giving others the perfect chance to take home a trophy. But who has the best chance of winning the whole thing? 

Semi-Final 1: Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa

Oliver Glasner is doing a very good job at Palace, and the owners deserve credit for sticking by him after a shaky start to the season after he did so well coming in last year. They’re currently 11th in the Premier League table after finishing tenth last term, and another top-half finish is certainly possible. 

Jean Philippe-Mateta is back after that horror injury against Millwall, Daniel Muñoz is enjoying a fantastic first full season in English football, and Eberechi Eze is Eberechi Eze. 

They enjoyed a hugely impressive 3-0 victory away at Fulham in the semi-finals over the weekend, scoring two in the space of a few minutes in the first half. 

Now, they’re set to face a Villa team perhaps not doing quite as well in the league as they did last season but exceeding expectations in Europe. At Villa Park, much of the focus will be on their two-legged Champions League quarter-final tie against Paris Saint-Germain, who knocked Liverpool out of the previous round.  

If they’re knocked out on 15 April, they might be even more determined to win the FA Cup and bring home their first trophy since they won the League Cup in 1996, you’d expect them to bounce back. 

Should they get through the PSG tie, attention will go to a semi-final against either Arsenal or Real Madrid which could prove a distraction. And Palace will be tougher opponents than Preston North End, who they beat 3-0 in the previous round.

But, regardless of their European adventures, Villa remain a very good team. And, if Marcus Rashford, who scored his first two Villa goals against Preston, can find form, they have a very good chance. 

One thing that could work in the Eagles’ favour, meanwhile, is that they have a home advantage of sorts. Semi-final ties are played at Wembley, which, though in a different area of London to Palace’s Selhurst Park, is much closer to them than it is for Birmingham-based Villa. 

The Villains are second favourites to win the tournament with most bookmakers, and while this match could be very tight, they are favourites to edge past Palace. 

Semi-Final 2: Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City 

Any other season, Man City are comfortable favourites to not only beat Forest here, but also to win the whole thing. But this isn’t a usual season for the Premier League champions. They’ve uncharacteristically struggled. Ballon d’Or winner Rodri has been out since September, they’ve missed Julián Alvarez following his move to Atlético Madrid in the summer, and a whole host of key players aren’t getting any younger.  

While they’re wondering whether they’ll even be playing Champions League football next season, meanwhile, Forest are flying and sit in third place in the league, beating City themselves last month. 

They beat fellow high-flyers Brighton & Hove Albion on penalties in the quarter-finals to get here, and an FA Cup win along with securing European football for next term would make this the club’s best campaign since the Brian Clough era. 

Everything has clicked for them at the right time – not totally unlike it did for Leicester City when they won the Premier League in 2016 and they look far more settled than they have at any other point since getting promoted to the top flight in 2022. 

Key new signings like Elliot Anderson and Nikola Milenković have settled in brilliantly, while Murillo, Ola Aina, Morgan Gibbs-White and Anthony Elanga are all having good seasons. They even have one of the Premier League’s top scorers in Chris Wood, with 18 league goals to his name already. That’s only three fewer than Man City’s Erling Haaland, but with better conversion and shot accuracy.

Speaking of Haaland, the Norwegian has just been ruled out for up to seven weeks, so he should be missing for the semi-final, something Forest’s camp will no doubt be relieved about. 

Most neutrals will be hoping for a Forest win and a trophyless season for City after their recent domination, and it’s definitely possible. 

The winner of this tie could well be the one to win the whole thing. If City can beat the team currently third in the Premier League table without Haaland, they can surely beat Palace or Villa in the final, particularly with the potential for the striker to be back for it. 

If Forest are to come out on top, they’ll have their best chance in years to win a trophy. They’ve got the momentum, and there’s no European competition to distract them. Their league game away at Villa this weekend should be an indicator as to where the two teams are at should they meet in the final, as would their match away at Palace in a month’s time. But if they can get past City, a true fairytale season is within their grasp. 

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