Who has the best chance of winning the Champions League?

• The Champions League round of 16 begins this week.
• Teams including Barcelona, Real Madrid and Liverpool are among the favourites.
• 2023 champions Manchester City were knocked out in the play-off round last month.

After a Champions League that’s differed so much from what we’re used to, the format at this stage is looking more familiar as we enter the round of 16.  

Some big teams have already left the competition – most notably 2023 winners Manchester City and Italian giants AC Milan and Juventus – but there are some mouthwatering ties being served up over the first half of March. Overall, however, who has the best chance of winning? 

Real Madrid and Arsenal could meet in the quarter-finals

Real Madrid, last year’s winners and serial Champions League victors, are the most obvious place to start. Firmly wedged in a three-horse race with Barcelona and Atletico Madrid to win LaLiga, they’re playing the latter for a place in the quarter-finals and the chance to play either Arsenal or PSV Eindhoven. 

There’s just something about Real in the Champions League, and they’ve strengthened from last season with the addition of Kylian Mbappé from Paris Saint-Germain. The Frenchman has rediscovered his form after a mixed start to his career in Spain, and with Vinicius Jr and Rodrygo alongside him the club has one of the best attacking trios in world football.

Then there are Jude Bellingham (though he is banned for the first leg) Eduardo Camavinga, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Antonio Rüdiger, Thibaut Courtois and the evergreen Luka Modric.  

Atletico certainly can’t be written off either, particularly with the addition of forward Julián Alvarez from Man City in the summer, and when they drew 1-1 at the Santiago Bernabeu in February, both Alvarez and Mbappé scored. While Real will be the favourites for the tie, it would be no huge shock to see Atleti go through instead. 

As for the tie between Arsenal and PSV, Arsenal are favourites despite drifting behind Premier League leaders Liverpool domestically. They reached the quarter-finals last year and they’ll be hoping to do the same by beating PSV, currently second in the Eredivisie behind Ajax. 

The Gunners wouldn’t be among the front-runners to win the Champions League – they’re probably not quite there yet. And, as for PSV, even if they did get past Arsenal, a tie against one of the La Liga giants could prove too much. 

Liverpool will hope to move past PSG

Whoever makes the semi-finals out of the four teams above will play one of PSG, Liverpool, Club Brugge or Aston Villa. The tie between PSG and Liverpool is the more eye-catching matchup, with both sides comfortably leading their respective leagues, and whichever goes through to the quarter-finals would have to be considered among the favourites to win the whole thing. 

Liverpool have exceeded expectations in their first season with Arne Slot as manager. Key players Alisson, Virgil van Dijk and Mohamed Salah are all in their thirties now but no less important, and Salah in particular has been in the form of his life this season. The Reds’ new generation of midfielders have impressed this year after something of a bedding-in period, too, with Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch and Dominic Szoboszlai all being in good form this year. 

PSG aren’t quite as star-studded as they were when they boasted Lionel Messi, Neymar and Mbappe, but their squad might be more balanced now. Forward Ousmane Dembele and goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma will both be vital if they hope to progress.  

Club Brugge, with no disrespect intended, are one of the weakest sides left in the competition, while Villa have impressed in the tournament so far but may struggle to keep up their fight for a top-half finish and go deep into the Champions League at the same time. They’ve recruited smartly, and new loan signing Marcus Rashford has plenty of Champions League experience with Manchester United. They could beat anyone on their day, but ultimately it’s difficult to look past Real Madrid and Liverpool for this half of the draw. 

Barcelona will fancy themselves to go far 

As for the other half, the match between Benfica and Barcelona feels like such a vintage Champions League tie. Both clubs with a rich European pedigree, they’re also both deep in title races in their respective domestic leagues. 

Barcelona would hope to win but will be mindful of Benfica’s quality, particularly after it took them a 96th-minute goal to beat As Águias in the tournament earlier this season.  Whoever goes through, however, would likely fancy their chances against the winner of the tie between Borussia Dortmund and Lille. 

Dortmund might have reached the final last term but they’re faltering this season, tenth in the Bundesliga and losing three of their games in the Champions League’s league phase. Lille, meanwhile, will be relying on key players including Jonathan David and Angel Gomes. One-time Middlesbrough forward Chupa Akpom will have a point to prove, too, joining the club on loan from Ajax after a rather average spell with the Dutch side. 

Can Inter beat the best of the Dutch and Germans?

Whichever team from the four come out on top in the quarter-final could be up against the winner of the all-German tie between Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen. Bayern aren’t a team you can ever write off in the Champions League, and they look closer to their usual selves this campaign after losing out on the Bundesliga title to Leverkusen last year.

Harry Kane is a remarkable goalscorer, Jamal Musiala is one of the best players in the world, and players like Manuel Neuer and Joshua Kimmich have a ridiculous amount of experience at the highest level. Leverkusen, for their part, have Florian Wirtz, who’s still only 21, and Granit Xhaka, whose post-Arsenal career has gone better than anyone expected.  

The winner of this tie will play the victor between Feyenoord and Inter Milan. The former were already beaten 4-0 at home by Leverkusen in September, while they sit fourth in the Eredivisie and could really struggle against Inter, currently top of Serie A. Champions League runners-up in 2023, the Nerazzuri will be hoping to go one better two years later. 

If they beat Feyenoord, a tie against one of the Bundesliga’s best clubs could prove tricky, before a potential semi-final against a team of Barcelona’s quality. And then, in the final, there could be a Real Madrid, Liverpool, or PSG to manoeuvre. 

Barcelona, and maybe Bayern, aside, the first half of the draw certainly seems the strongest, and you might go as far as to say that the winner of that semi-final is best placed to go on and win the whole thing. But then, the European giants on the other side will surely have something to say about that. 

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