Embrace the Chaos: Can Anybody Stop Leeds United in Yet Another Manic Championship Campaign?

At the time of writing this article, if you took the combined form of the teams sat in the top six of the Championship table, their collective results read W17 D15 L4.

So while the best in the division aren’t losing many games, they are drawing a remarkably high number of them: does that indicate that many of the sides in the Championship are even in standard, or that the frontrunners simply aren’t very good?

Top of the pile are Leeds United, who are above Sunderland courtesy of a superior goal difference. The Yorkshiremen did not get their campaign off to a great start with two wins from five league outings, but since the international break in October their form reads W5 D1 L1.

Leeds have compiled a better points-per-game ratio than this time last season; a campaign in which they amassed 90 points and still didn’t get promoted. But there’s no Leicester City and no Ipswich Town for company, so are Daniel Farke’s men on course to canter to the Championship title? 

On the Up and Up

Here’s a fun fact that will warm the cockles of Leeds fans: they have more points after 16 games this term (32) than they have had at the stage of each of their last ten Championship campaigns.

So the sluggish start has given way to something far more substantial for Farke, who will be looking to banish the memory of play-off heartbreak of 2023/24.

At this earlyish stage of the season, the league table doesn’t always reflect an accurate picture of the action out on the pitch: a couple of ‘lucky’ wins here and there, or unfortunate losses, can skew points tallies at a greater ratio than later in the campaign.

That’s one of the reasons that students of the beautiful game use the Expected Points (xP) metric at the early stage of a season to see who is worthy of their points tally, as well as identifying those whose league position is, quite possibly, a false dawn.

In the Championship thus far, Leeds, Sunderland and Sheffield United sit top of the tree with 32 points each. But in the Expected Points table, which is calculated by taking xG against from xG for, their respective positions are first, sixth and eighth… suggesting the Yorkshiremen are better value for their placing than the Black Cats and the Blades.

Pick any other data metric and you’ll be met with more positivity from a Leeds perspective. In an attacking sense, they sit joint-first for goals scored per game and second for xG created, shots on target per 90 minutes, Big Chances created and most touches in their opposition’s box.

Defensively, Leeds rank first for xG conceded and saves per match and second for clean sheets kept.

All of which means they are evidently flying at both ends of the pitch, and it’s that ability to command both halves that ultimately makes Leeds a red-hot favourite to return to the Premier League come the end of the season.

Oh Danny Boy

It was amazing to read in the summer that Leeds were, allegedly, pondering the sacking of Farke.

The Whites’ points tally of 90 would have been enough to win the Championship in 2021/22, let alone get promoted, so the fact that they were usurped by Leicester and Ipswich last season was mere happenstance and bad luck, rather than Leeds having a ‘bad’ campaign.

Indeed, if we average out Leeds’ current two points per game ratio over an entire season, a hypothetical points tally of 92 would have been enough to secure promotion in four of the last five seasons.

Farke, with two Championship promotions on his CV from his time at Norwich City, is an expert at getting out of the second tier, so it would be nothing short of foolhardy for him to be sacked any time soon… barring a catastrophic collapse in form, of course.

The incredible job that the German is doing at Elland Road is accentuated by the transfer strife he faced in the summer. Georginio Rutter, Archie Gray, Crysencio Summerville and Luis Sinisterra were all sold, and while a handsome profit was made, that would have been little comfort to Farke, who had witnessed the heart ripped out of his starting eleven.

All told, Leeds made a net transfer profit in the region of £100 million in the summer, while low-key signings like Joe Rodon, Jayden Bogle, Largie Ramazani and Ao Tanaka have settled into the club nicely.

Farke has also been able to coach some of his pre-existing stars to new heights. Willy Gnonto has eight goal involvements in 15 starts this term, while Joel Piroe, so often overlooked last season, is currently Leeds’ top goalscorer this.

The German favours a swashbuckling 4-2-3-1 system, with Bogle and his fellow full back Junior Firpo bombing forward. Although a defensive midfield pivot provides some cover to the two centre backs, in truth they can be exposed at times, leaving Leeds vulnerable to marauding counter attacks.

But in the attacking third, they are irresistible, with Bogle holding the width on the right-hand side and allowing Gnonto something of a free role. Piroe, finally playing as the central striker after being shuffled into the number ten role at times last term, is revelling in leading the line.

If they can find a solution to their away day blues (W3 D4 L1), Leeds will disappear out of sight at the top of the table before Spring has even sprung.

Many Championship level teams would have crumbled after losing Rutter, Gray, Summerville and Sinisterra, and yet all of the signs suggest that Leeds are as strong, if not stronger, without that stellar quartet.

The architect of that is very much Farke, who is as safe a pair of hands as you’re likely to see in the Championship. He will, presumably, take Leeds back to the Premier League in time for 2025/26; whether he will get a chance to prove himself on the big stage, however, is another matter entirely. 

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